A three-way fight in the upcoming general elections in Mauritius is seen as a bonus for some parties and split the country between a ruling coalition and two major opposition parties.
The MSM-ML headed by Pravind Jugnauth is not the favourites, as expected, but could still pull a surprise.
A photocopied document entitled “Breaking News: NSS briefing 15.30 to PM” in circulation on Whatsapp paints a bleak future for the government.
The supposed NSS briefing gives the Alliance Mauricien or MSM-ML etc 11 seats in the upcoming Nov 7 elections.
It says, MSM: 11 Elected Members of the Legislative Assembly and is dated Friday, Oct 18, 2019.
The photo in circulation, which is with an orange background with white writing (see below), shows the 11 constituencies where it says MSM-ML has a chance to win a seat.
On the ground, the Labour Party says it can win over 40 seats, but the three-cornered fight may dampen the lead it took on May 1st when it gathered one of the biggest crowd.
Another document circulating on Facebook gives the Labour Party 18 seats. Most of the seats are in the villages, but the party is seen doing well in Port Louis.
It is expected to win 5 out of 12 seats, while the MSM-ML is given 2 seats. The rest should go to the MMM of Paul Berenger or 5 seats.
While PM Pravind Jugnauth is given as a winner at No 6 but the two other candidates will lose, Navin Ramgoolam the ex-PM hot favourite at No 10.
A massive crowd of supporters accompanied him for the nomination day yesterday, hinting for a possible victory for Ramgoolam.
Based on the estimates, if the Labour has 18 seats and the MSM 11, the MMM may get a fair share of the spoils this time around.
Reports say the MMM can win between 21 to 28 seats. It is hot favourites in a Top FM survey online, giving it the lead with 40%.
Berenger is expected to win his seat with the resurgence of support for the MMM in these elections.