It has been a bad year for Huawei in 2019, and 2020 does not look good for the Chinese mobile tech giant.
Unless Beijing bends over in the trade war tussle with the Americans or US President Donald Trump is removed from office.
These are two impossible scenarios, according to some experts. Why? The Chinese want a status quo in the trade war.
It helps them slow down the openness of their economy and slow the reforms they promised the Americans.
On the other hand, for the Chinese to bend over to the Americans will signal the defeat of the Communist Party outside China.
The strength of the Communist Party is measured by the amount of bullying it can achieve on the international markets.
It reflects on President Xi Jinping and on the capacity of the Chinese government to impose its will abroad.
Huawei’s rise was stopped in the US and in some parts of Europe, Germany also excluded Huawei Technologies in their 5G project.
Hearing this, Wu Ken, the Chinese Ambassador to Germany, threatened there would be retaliation.
On December 16, Wu Ken said, “If Germany takes a decision that leads to excluding Huawei from the German market, there will be consequences.”
Not just that, he also added that Huawei (and similar companies) had no legal obligation to provide data to the Chinese government.
He meant that was the key to allow Huawei to contribute or to lead in the western 5G project.
Wu Ken stressed that Huawei was not a Chinese spy and had no obligation to give data.
Yet not many people believe the Chinese government does not force the Telcos to hand over data to them.
Resistance against Huawei is growing among lawmakers in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s governing coalition.
Lawmakers are suggesting a Bill that would impose a broad ban on “untrustworthy” 5G vendors. Huawei may fall into that category.
One way China may hurt the German business is to target its car exports to China.
Last year, a quarter of cars sold in China were made in Germany.
Hence, the only possible way for Huawei to win the fight on the international arena is perhaps, to see that Trump is removed from office.
But, this too seems to be a tough call. A large majority of the Senate has to vote against Trump. Which is unlikely at this point.